After the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident in Japan in 2011, many countries around the world slammed on the brakes of nuclear power development. Germany, Italy, the ROK and other countries announced to reduce or even abandon nuclear power.  However, in the past two years, the impact of COVID-19 on the energy supply chain, the growth of energy demand driven by the post-epidemic economic recovery, and the crisis in Ukraine followed one another, leading to a surge in global energy prices and an energy crisis in Europe.  Concerned about the "black swan" event and the continuing impact of geopolitics on the energy market, more and more countries have begun to adjust their nuclear power strategies to reduce their external energy dependence and ensure energy security.  

I. Development history and current situation of global nuclear power  

(I) The development of global nuclear power  

Since the 1950s, global nuclear power development has roughly experienced four stages: experimental demonstration, rapid development, slow development and gradual recovery:  

The period from 1954 to 1965 was the experimental demonstration phase.  Since 1954, when the former Soviet Union built the world's first commercial nuclear power plant, a total of 38 nuclear power units were put into operation in this stage, all of which belong to the early prototype reactors, namely the first generation of nuclear power plants.  

1966-1980 was a period of rapid development.  During this period, affected by the oil crisis, nuclear power was rapidly developed, with 242 units put into operation, all of which belong to the second generation of nuclear power plants.  During this period, the United States built pressurized water reactors and boiling water reactors in batches and exported them to other countries, while Japan and France imported American nuclear power technology.  Second-generation nuclear power has been commercialized and standardized, and most of the nuclear power plants in operation worldwide are still second-generation nuclear power technology.  

The period from 1981 to 2000 was slow development.  During this period, the development of nuclear power in the West was slow due to the economic slowdown caused by the oil crisis, falling demand for electricity, and the nuclear accidents at Three Mile Island and Chernobyl.  Countries such as China, South Korea and India continued to build nuclear power on a large scale in the 1990s.  

In the 21st century, global nuclear power has entered a stage of gradual recovery due to the interaction of global energy shortage, carbon emission reduction constraints and other factors.  All countries have actively carried out nuclear power planning, and the third generation nuclear power technology has made significant progress and been gradually applied in all countries.  China has recently become one of the few countries in the world to master fourth-generation nuclear power technology.  

(2) Current situation of global nuclear power development  

Statistics from the World Nuclear Association show that by the end of 2021, there were 436 operational nuclear power units in the world, five fewer than in 2020, of which 70 percent were pressurized water reactors.  The total installed capacity of operational nuclear power units is about 396 GW, 1 GW less than that of 2020, among which the installed capacity of operational nuclear power units is 370 GW, 1 GW more than that of 2020.  

In 2021, global nuclear power generation reached 2,653 terawatt hours, an increase of 100 terawatt hours over 2020.  Nuclear power generation in Africa, Asia, Eastern Europe and South America, where nuclear power has continued to grow in recent years;  Nuclear generation in Western and Central Europe also increased, but at a slower rate;  North America's nuclear power output fell for the second year in a row as reactors in the United States continued to shut down.  

In 2021, eight large pressurized water reactors started construction around the world, including five in China, two in India and one in Turkey.  In addition, a lead-cooled fast reactor and a small modular reactor are under construction in Russia and China, respectively.  The total number of nuclear power units under construction worldwide in 2021 was 53, including 36 in Asia, 7 in Eastern Europe, a total of 6 in Western and Central Europe, and 2 each in North and South America.  

In 2021, 10 reactors were permanently shut down around the world, including three each in the UK and Germany, and one each in Russia, the US, Pakistan and Taiwan. 

2. Recent trends in nuclear power strategies of various countries  

(I) The United States: Launch a $6 billion nuclear power rescue credit program  

Since 1990, the installed capacity and power generation of nuclear power in the United States have remained relatively stable, and few new nuclear power units have been put into operation.  According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, the U.S. generated 778 million megawatt-hours of nuclear power in 2021. The share of nuclear power in the U.S. power generation mix has remained unchanged in the past decade, at 19% in 2021.  Over the past decade, more than a dozen commercial nuclear reactors in the United States have shut down as their licenses expired.  Currently, there are 92 nuclear power units in operation in the United States, and two AP1000 nuclear power units are under construction.  Most of the existing nuclear power units are second-generation nuclear reactors, and the average operating age of the units is generally high. Some units have even applied for a 30-year life extension.  

In April, the U.S. government launched a $6 billion civil nuclear credit program to help owners and operators of financially troubled nuclear plants, giving priority to plants that have announced plans to close.  The U.S. Department of Energy says nuclear power is its largest source of clean energy, and more than a quarter of those units are in financial distress. The credit program could help prevent premature decommissioning of reactors and preserve thousands of well-paying clean energy jobs while curbing carbon emissions.  

(2) France: 25 GW of new nuclear power capacity in 2050  

From the perspective of the proportion of nuclear power in the country's electricity structure, France is the world's highest, accounting for about 69%.  Previously, France had planned to gradually reduce the proportion of nuclear power, focus on developing new energy.  In 2015, France passed the Energy Transition Green Development Act, which aims to reduce the proportion of nuclear power to 50 percent by 2035, from 75 percent in 2015, and limit the maximum installed capacity of nuclear power to 63.2 GW.  

This year, France's nuclear policy has undergone a U-turn in terms of both building new nuclear power units and extending the life of old ones.  In February, France proposed to build six new EPR2 units starting from 2028, with the first set to be put into operation by 2035 and eight more to be built on that basis, with an additional 25 GW of nuclear power installed by 2050.  In addition, the life of existing nuclear power units in France will continue to be extended from 40 years to more than 50 years under the premise of meeting safety conditions.  In addition to large reactors, the French government plans to invest 1 billion euros to support research and development of small modular reactors, new reactors and nuclear fuel cycles to reduce nuclear waste.  

(3) Japan: Make maximum use of existing nuclear energy this winter  

After the Fukushima accident, the Japanese government shut down the country's 54 nuclear reactors.  According to the data, nuclear power plants accounted for only 4% of Japan's electricity production in 2020.  In March this year, a massive earthquake shut down six coal-fired power plants in Japan, adding to the high temperatures, prompting calls to restart nuclear power in Japan.  

Recently, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry issued a "clean energy strategy interim report" clearly pointed out that nuclear power and clean energy should be used continuously as an important source of electricity.  The government wants nuclear power to make up 22% of the energy mix by 2030.  In July, the Japanese authorities made it clear that they would "maximise the use of nuclear energy that has been confirmed as safe".  On January 14, the prime minister announced at a press conference that the government was preparing to restart four nuclear power units, in addition to the five currently in operation, to avoid power shortages this winter.  

(4) South Korea: The proportion of nuclear power in 2030 will exceed 30%  

South Korea has 25 nuclear reactors, 19 of which are in operation.  Nuclear power accounted for 27.4 percent of South Korea's energy mix in 2021.  The previous government planned to reduce the number of nuclear reactors in operation to 17 by 2034, with nuclear power accounting for only 6.1% to 7.2% of electricity supply in a net-zero emissions scenario by 2050.  The current government has reversed its predecessor's plan to phase out nuclear power and encouraged a rapid restoration of the "nuclear plant ecosystem", arguing that nuclear power should be used alongside renewable energy to meet South Korea's net-zero emissions pledge by 2050.  

On July 5, a cabinet meeting approved the new government's energy policy direction, which aims to increase the share of nuclear power in overall energy to more than 30 percent by 2030 to improve energy security and help meet carbon reduction targets.  The South Korean government has decided to resume construction of the No. 3 and No. 4 nuclear power plants at the Shinhanul Nuclear Power Plant and maintain the operation of existing nuclear power plants while ensuring their safety.  In addition, the South Korean government will support the export of new industries in the energy sector, proposing to build 10 new nuclear reactors overseas by 2030 and spend 400 billion won on developing its own small modular reactors.  South Korea will aim to win markets such as the Czech Republic and Poland to achieve its goal of exporting 10 nuclear reactors by 2030, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy.  

(v) Canada: becoming a global exporter of small modular reactor technology  

The Canadian provincial governments of Ontario, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta released a joint strategic plan called the Modular Small Heap (SMR) Deployment Strategic Plan in March.  The plan identifies several priority areas for the development and deployment of small modular reactors in Canada :(1) position Canada as a global exporter of small modular reactor technology by promoting three separate small modular reactor development routes, covering both grid-connected and off-grid applications;  (2) Establish a strong nuclear regulatory framework that focuses on public and environmental health and safety, while ensuring reasonable costs and construction cycles;  (3) Secure a federal commitment to financial and policy support for new small modular reactor technologies;  (4) Create opportunities for the participation of indigenous communities and the public;  (5) Work with the federal government and nuclear operators to develop a nuclear waste management plan for small modular reactors.  At the same time, Ontario Power and the Tennessee Valley Authority announced a partnership to develop advanced nuclear technology programs, including small modular reactors, and create a North American Energy Hub to promote energy security in North America.  

(6) Britain: will launch a government fund to accelerate nuclear fuel supply  

Britain is exploring the formation of a government agency called UK Nuclear, which plans to build nuclear power at a rate of about one new project a year over the next decade.  In April, the UK released its Energy Security Strategy, which said it would develop eight large nuclear power projects and build a number of small modular reactors.  By 2050, the UK is set to triple its nuclear capacity to 24 gigawatts, providing 25 per cent of the country's electricity needs.  To safeguard nuclear ambitions, the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy will launch a £75m nuclear fuel fund to boost domestic production of fuel for nuclear power reactors.  

3. Thoughts and suggestions  

1. Pursuing active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power  

Nuclear energy is a kind of clean, efficient and stable energy, active, safe and orderly development of nuclear power, not only helps to reduce the degree of dependence on foreign energy, but also helps to accelerate the construction of a clean, low carbon, safe and efficient energy system, help to achieve carbon peak carbon neutrality.  

China's "14th Five-Year Plan" for modern energy system proposes that the installed capacity of nuclear power in operation will reach about 70 million kilowatts by 2025.  To achieve this goal, we need to focus on the following aspects: First, on the premise of strict supervision and absolute safety, we need to strengthen the location planning of nuclear power plants and rationally distribute new nuclear power projects.  Second, we will continue to demonstrate the comprehensive use of nuclear energy and promote the comprehensive use of nuclear energy in clean heating, industrial heating (cooling), seawater desalination, nuclear hydrogen production, and isotope production.  Third, accelerate the construction of a mechanism for the coordinated development of nuclear power and other clean energy, and build an integrated smart energy system of "landscape nuclear storage" by relying on digital technology.  Fourth, efforts should be made to popularize the science of nuclear energy technology and safety, and enhance the public's awareness and acceptance of nuclear power.  

(2) Adopt multiple measures to ensure nuclear fuel safety  

According to the World Nuclear Association, the global demand for uranium for nuclear reactors was around 62,500 tonnes in 2021, and in the reference scenario, global uranium demand is expected to increase to 79,400 tonnes in 2030 and 112,300 tonnes in 2040.  However, after the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011, the global uranium industry fell into a decade-long downturn, with the international uranium price hovering at a low level, and the global uranium output dropped significantly from 63,207 tons in 2016 to 47,731 tons in 2020.  By assessing current and future mine production capacity, the World Nuclear Association expects global primary uranium production to be around 70,100 tonnes in 2030, falling to 50,600 tonnes in 2040.  According to the current nuclear power strategies of various countries and the production and supply situation of global uranium resources, it can be predicted that in the next 10 to 20 years, if there is no increase in production, the supply and demand of global uranium resources will be unbalanced.  

Compared with the United States and Russia, China has a low proved degree of uranium resources.  Due to the coexistence and enrichment of uranium and coal, oil and gas and other mineral resources, most of mining rights are occupied by coal and oil and gas industry, plus the local government environmental access conditions, it is difficult to obtain mining rights for large uranium mining bases in China.  In addition, most of the world's high-quality uranium resources are controlled by several large foreign uranium mining companies. Under the current complex international situation, it is increasingly difficult for China to acquire uranium resources overseas.  In this regard, China needs to take multiple measures to ensure the security of nuclear fuel supply: first, we should strengthen the coordination and investment of domestic uranium exploration and development, focus on finding large ore, rich ore and economic mining, and find out the bottom of China's uranium resources as soon as possible.  The second is to encourage Chinese enterprises to explore overseas independently and actively cooperate with foreign companies to develop uranium resources in accordance with international rules.  Third, accelerate the construction of nuclear fuel reserve system to enhance the domestic nuclear fuel emergency support capacity.  

3. Adhering to the strategy of "going global" for nuclear power equipment  

China has developed the large third-generation pressurized water reactor nuclear power technologies such as Hualong 1, Guohe 1 and so on, which have independent intellectual property rights. It has systematically mastered the high-temperature gas cooled reactor technology with fourth-generation characteristics. A variety of small reactor technologies with their own characteristics are also being prepared for project demonstration.  The new breakthrough in the field of nuclear power technology has laid a solid foundation for our nuclear power equipment "going out".  

In the next step, on the one hand, China should continue to strengthen nuclear science and technology research and development and independent innovation, actively participate in the compilation and revision of international nuclear power standards, enhance the soft power of the nuclear industry, and "go out" the standard system to draw supporting equipment.  On the other hand, we will establish a national coordination mechanism for nuclear power "going global", improve the relevant legal system, and reduce risks in overseas cooperation policies and financing.  At the same time, strengthen intellectual property rights protection and management, enhance our nuclear power enterprises global competitiveness and influence.